基于Bootstrap仿真的鱼雷实航工作可靠度评定方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2018.05.17

现代防御技术 ›› 2018, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5): 109-113.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2018.05.17

基于Bootstrap仿真的鱼雷实航工作可靠度评定方法

薛来, 甘祖旺

昆明船舶设备研究试验中心,云南昆明 650051

收稿日期:2017-10-24 修回日期:2018-01-19 出版日期:2018-10-30 发布日期:2020-11-25
作者简介:薛来(1986-),男,云南昆明人。工程师,硕士,主要从事水中兵器可靠性试验与评定。通信地址:650051 云南省昆明市人民东路3号 E-mail:ganzw20080920@163.com
基金资助:
船舶预研支撑技术基金项目(13J4.3.3)

Reliability Assessment Method of Torpedo Navigation Based on Bootstrap Simulation

XUE Lai, GAN Zu-wang

Kunming Shipborne Equipment Research & Test Center,Yunnan Kunming 650051,China

Received:2017-10-24 Revised:2018-01-19 Online:2018-10-30 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 由于鱼雷产品的可靠性不断提高,同时可靠性试验受经费、时间等因素的限制,导致鱼雷实航工作可靠度的评定面临现场试验数据不足的问题。近年来,普遍采用补充可靠性先验数据结合Bayes方法进行综合评定来解决这一小子样问题。针对现有先验数据获取未能充分利用性能可靠性信息,利用Bootstrap仿真方法对性能可靠性数据进行仿真增加样本量,作为现场可靠性Bayes评定的先验数据,极大地降低了实航工作可靠度评定样本不足对评估结果的影响,具有很好的工程应用价值。

关键词: Bootstrap方法, 实航工作可靠度, 性能可靠性, 先验数据, 可靠性评定, 贝叶斯方法

Abstract: Torpedo working reliability assessment comes up against the condition of lacking sample, because of increasingly long lifetime and restricted reliability test by expenditure. In recent years, technical experts usually mine prior data combined with reliability test data to solve the problem using Bayes method. Considering that the existing prior data acquiring doesn't cover the performance reliability information, the Bootstrap simulation method is used to obtain the performance data as the prior data utilized by Bayes reliability method, which tremendously relieves the influence of lacking prior information on reliability assessment and has practical engineering value.

Key words: Bootstrap, working reliability assessment, performance reliability, priori data, reliability assessment, Bayes method

中图分类号:

薛来, 甘祖旺. 基于Bootstrap仿真的鱼雷实航工作可靠度评定方法[J]. 现代防御技术, 2018, 46(5): 109-113.

XUE Lai, GAN Zu-wang. Reliability Assessment Method of Torpedo Navigation Based on Bootstrap Simulation[J]. Modern Defense Technology, 2018, 46(5): 109-113.

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基于Bootstrap仿真的鱼雷实航工作可靠度评定方法

Reliability Assessment Method of Torpedo Navigation Based on Bootstrap Simulation

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