现代防御技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (5): 14-21.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2022.05.003

• 空天防御体系与武器 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑不确定性的低空无人机运行风险评估方法

王文涛1, 甘旭升1, 吴亚荣1, 任谨慎2, 王翠香2   

  1. 1.空军工程大学,空管领航学院,陕西 西安 710051
    2.空军工程大学,基础部,陕西 西安 710051
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-07 修回日期:2022-04-08 出版日期:2022-10-28 发布日期:2022-11-03
  • 作者简介:王文涛(2000-),男,北京人。管制员,本科,研究方向为航空管制。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(52074309)

Low-altitude UAV Operation Risk Assessment Method Considering the Uncertainty

Wen-tao WANG1, Xu-sheng GAN1, Ya-rong WU1, Jin-shen REN2, Cui-xiang WANG2   

  1. Air Force Engineering University,a. Air Traffic Control and Navigation College; b. Basic Courses Department,Shaanxi Xi’an 710051,China
  • Received:2022-01-07 Revised:2022-04-08 Online:2022-10-28 Published:2022-11-03

摘要:

针对低空空域环境复杂,无人机运行风险无法进行量化的现状,提出考虑运行过程中不确定性的低空无人机运行风险评估方法。根据无人机下降过程中的受力模型,推导出无人机突发故障的坠落影响区域;考虑无人机运行过程中的不确定性,利用Monte-Carlo方法确定无人机坠落点分布,计算出坠落的影响面积,从而得出系统风险值;通过案例分析,验证了所提风险评估方法的有效性与合理性,能够对低空无人机空中交通管理提供实时安全评估,保证无人机在低空空域内安全运行。

关键词: 无人机系统, 空中交通管理, 风险评估, 蒙特卡罗

Abstract:

In view of the complex low-altitude airspace environment and the fact that unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) operation risks cannot be quantified, a low-altitude UAV operation risk assessment method considering the uncertainty in the operation process is proposed. According to the force model during the descent of the UAV, the area affected by the sudden failure of the UAV is deduced. Considering the uncertainty in the operation of the UAV, the Monte-Carlo method is used to determine the UAV’s fall point distribution, the impact area of the fall is calculated, and the system risk value is obtained. Through case analysis, the validity and rationality of the proposed risk assessment method are verified, which can provide real-time safety assessment for low-altitude UAV air traffic management, and guarantee the UAV operates safely in the low-altitude airspace.

Key words: unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) system, air traffic management, risk assessment, Monte-Carlo

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