反舰导弹对岛礁区目标的搜捕概率研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2018.06.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对打击岛礁区目标时反舰导弹搜捕概率计算问题, 通过分析末制导雷达实际搜索过程和捕获条件, 构建了目标选择规则, 建立了岛礁影响下的反舰导弹搜捕概率计算模型, 给出了综合距离、方位、分辨率和目标选择的搜捕判据, 并依据概率分布函数, 研究了反舰导弹自控终点散布、水面舰艇机动模型及其对搜捕概率的影响。最后仿真分析了目指坐标位于岛礁四周不同位置、搜索扇面变化对搜捕概率的影响。结果显示, 水面舰艇靠近岛礁、或位于岛礁后方长条形区域内时, 搜捕概率越低;位于岛礁前方即使距离较近时搜捕概率也较高;距岛礁较近时, 较小的搜索扇面更优。

关键词: 搜捕概率, 岛礁区目标, 目标选择, 分辨率判据, 反舰导弹, 水面舰艇

Abstract: Aiming at the acquisition probability calculation of anti ship missile (ASM) when attacking target in reef island area, the radar searching process and target acquiring requirements were analyzed and the target selection rules of terminal guidance radar were given. The calculation models of acquisition probability under the influence of reef islands were built. The target acquiring criterions which integrated distance, azimuth, resolution, and target selection constraint were presented. Based on probability distribution function, the scattering of ASM programmed flight termination was studied; the surface target motion model was built; and their influence to the probability calculation was analyzed. The acquisition probability with target indication coordinates located in different positions around reef islands and with different search sector angle were simulated. The results showed that the acquisition probabilities were lower when surface target near the island or located at strip area behind the island and higher even if surface target was located at close distance of the front side of the island; and a smaller search sector angle was better if surface target was close to the island.

Key words: acquisition probability, reef-island area target, target selection, resolution criterion, antiship missile, surface ship

中图分类号:

罗木生, 侯学隆, 王宗杰, 王培源. 反舰导弹对岛礁区目标的搜捕概率研究[J]. 现代防御技术, 2018, 46(6): 30-35.

LUO Mu-sheng, HOU Xue-long, WANG Zong-jie, WANG Pei-yuan. Acquisition Probability of Anti Ship Missiles for Targets in Reef Islands Areas[J]. Modern Defense Technology, 2018, 46(6): 30-35.

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