航空器轮胎爆破事故量化分析与预防方法研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2018.05.16

现代防御技术 ›› 2018, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5): 102-108.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2018.05.16

航空器轮胎爆破事故量化分析与预防方法研究

崔利杰, 丛继平, 张贾奎, 任博

空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安 710051

收稿日期:2018-01-15 修回日期:2018-02-25 出版日期:2018-10-30 发布日期:2020-11-25
作者简介:崔利杰(1979-),男,河南许昌人。副教授,博士,研究方向为航空安全、系统可靠性与优化。通信地址:710051 陕西省西安市灞桥区长乐东路甲字1号管院 E-mail:lijie_cui@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71401174,71501185); 航空基金(20165196017)

Quantitative Analysis and Prevention Methodology of Tire-burst Aviation Accident

CUI Li-jie, CONG Ji-ping, ZHANG Jia-kui, REN Bo

AFEU,Equipment Management and Unmanned Aircraft Engineering College,Shaanxi Xi'an 710051,China

Received:2018-01-15 Revised:2018-02-25 Online:2018-10-30 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在对传统重要度优缺点开展分析并扩展航空事故重要性分析的基础上,提出了一种新的航空事故重要度定义和求解方法。以飞机轮胎爆破事故为例,给出了航空事故Bow-tie模型的建模方法和具体步骤,提出了利用基本事件和环节事件发生概率直接计算航空事故发生可能性的定量求解方法。从数值上建立了危险源与航空事故发生后果的量化联系,并提出了一种基于Bow-tie模型的航空事故预防对策和控制措施生成机制,为有效预防、控制和缓解各类航空事故提供了依据。

关键词: 航空事故分析, Bow-tie模型, 轮胎爆破, 量化联系, 重要度分析, 预防对策

Abstract: By analyzing the merits and demerits of traditional important measures, their definitions are expanded to the aviation accident importance analysis. A new aviation accident important measure and its solution are proposed. Taking the tire burst accident as an example, the method and process of the aviation accident's Bow-tie model are provided to efficiently and directly display the relation between basic and outcomes events. The solution which can directly compute the possibility of each aviation accident's outcome by the probabilities of basic events and link events is provided, and the solution builds a quantitative relation between hazards and outcomes of aviation accidents. According to the computational results, a universal methodology to generate aviation accident's preventive measures and mitigate control measures is suggested, it's feasible and property are testified by the example of the tire burst accident.

Key words: aviation accident, Bow-tie model, tire burst, quantitative relation, importance analysis, counter-measures

中图分类号:

V267

崔利杰, 丛继平, 张贾奎, 任博. 航空器轮胎爆破事故量化分析与预防方法研究[J]. 现代防御技术, 2018, 46(5): 102-108.

CUI Li-jie, CONG Ji-ping, ZHANG Jia-kui, REN Bo. Quantitative Analysis and Prevention Methodology of Tire-burst Aviation Accident[J]. Modern Defense Technology, 2018, 46(5): 102-108.

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航空器轮胎爆破事故量化分析与预防方法研究

Quantitative Analysis and Prevention Methodology of Tire-burst Aviation Accident

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