现代防御技术 ›› 2026, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (5): 92-101.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2026.05.007

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

改进型兰彻斯特方程的OODA环决策方法及其作战效能评估

冯启宁1, 陈嘉腾2, 张超2, 于澎3, 康会峰1   

  1. 1.北华航天工业学院,河北 廊坊 065000
    2.清华大学,北京 100084
    3.北京电子工程总体研究所,北京 100854
  • 收稿日期:2025-07-15 修回日期:2025-08-27 出版日期:2026-10-28 发布日期:2026-11-03
  • 作者简介:冯启宁(2001-),男,北京人。硕士生,研究方向为航空宇航科学与技术。

OODA Loop Decision-Making Method Based on an Improved Lanchester Equation and Its Assessment of Combat Effectiveness

Qining FENG1, Jiateng CHEN2, Chao ZHANG2, Peng YU3, Huifeng KANG1   

  1. 1.North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering,Langfang 065000,China
    2.Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China
    3.Beijing Institute of Electronic System Engineering,Beijing 100854,China
  • Received:2025-07-15 Revised:2025-08-27 Online:2026-10-28 Published:2026-11-03

摘要:

经典兰彻斯特方程通过一组常微分方程,来描述确定性或随机性情况下,作战双方在激烈的对抗中随时间的持续相互消耗,进而完成作战效能动态评估。为了提高反无人机防空体系OODA循环的性能,针对无人机集群饱和攻击下反无人机防空体系OODA环决策速度与打击效率不足的问题,提出一种基于改进型兰彻斯特方程的OODA环决策方法。该方法在传统兰彻斯特方程中引入信息因子、毁伤效率因子与火力分配权重因子,构建多兵种、多目标的对抗建模框架,并利用实时毁伤评估结果动态调整目标分配权重,实现火力资源的最优分配。通过典型反无人机作战场景仿真,结果表明该方法可有效提升红方对蓝方无人机集群的毁伤速率,减少兵力损耗,提高作战效能。

关键词: 无人机对抗, 兰彻斯特方程, OODA环, 防空体系, 集群作战

Abstract:

The classical Lanchester equations, formulated as a set of ordinary differential equations, describe the continuous mutual attrition of opposing forces in intense confrontation over time under deterministic or stochastic conditions, thereby enabling dynamic assessment of combat effectiveness. To enhance the performance of the observe-orient-decide-act (OODA) loop in anti-UAV air defense systems, and to address the insufficient decision-making speed and strike efficiency under UAV swarm saturation attacks, this paper proposes an OODA loop decision-making method based on an improved Lanchester equation. The proposed approach incorporates an information factor, a damage efficiency factor, and a fire allocation weight factor into the traditional Lanchester equation to construct a multi-arm, multi-target confrontation modeling framework. Real-time battle damage assessment results are utilized to dynamically adjust the target allocation weights, which achieves optimal allocation of fire resources. Simulation experiments using a representative anti-UAV operational scenario demonstrate that the method significantly increases the damage rate of red forces against blue UAV swarms, reduces force attrition, and improves combat effectiveness.

Key words: UAV confrontation, Lanchester equation, OODA loop, air defense system, swarm operations

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