Abstract:

Dual manufacturers are employed to develop and produce new components with high technical requirements and production difficulty to mitigate the influence of newly developed components on the development and production of air-to-air missiles， which raises the issue of how to conduct sufficient and necessary assessments during configuration qualification. Based on the receiving probability formula， the consumer’s risk under two time-terminated test schemes previously adopted in the full-missile reliability qualification test is analyzed， and the lower confidence limit of reliability is evaluated according to the test results. Whether it is the consumer’s risk or the lower confidence limit， it is indicated that the two schemes both meet consumer’s requirements. However， for missiles whose reliability reaches the specified value， the probability of them passing test scheme 2 is low. Currently， as consumers believe that the assessment for dual matching components in scheme 1 is insufficient， the scheme is no longer adopted. Finally， a reliability qualification test scheme that meets the consumer’s risk and the index requirements while also taking into account the developer’s risk is proposed.

Key words: air-to-air missile, dual matching component, reliability qualification test, consumer’s risk, minimum acceptable value, receiving probability

摘要：

为减小新研部件对空空导弹研制交付的影响，对一些技术要求高、生产难度大的新研部件采用双厂家配套研制生产，由此带来了状态鉴定时如何充分必要地考核问题。基于接收概率公式，分析了全弹可靠性鉴定试验曾选用的2种定时试验方案中的使用方风险，并根据试验结果评估了可靠性置信下限。无论是使用方风险或是置信下限，2种方案都满足使用方要求，只是可靠性已达到规定值的导弹通过试验方案2的概率低，目前使用方认为方案1对双配套部件的考核不充分，故不再采用。给出了既满足使用方风险及指标要求又能兼顾研制方风险的可靠性鉴定试验方案。

关键词: 空空导弹, 双配套, 可靠性鉴定试验, 使用方风险, 最低可接受值, 接收概率