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Quantitative Analysis and Prevention Methodology of Tire-burst Aviation Accident
CUI Li-jie, CONG Ji-ping, ZHANG Jia-kui, REN Bo
Modern Defense Technology
2018, 46 (5):
102-108.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2018.05.16
By analyzing the merits and demerits of traditional important measures, their definitions are expanded to the aviation accident importance analysis. A new aviation accident important measure and its solution are proposed. Taking the tire burst accident as an example, the method and process of the aviation accident's Bow-tie model are provided to efficiently and directly display the relation between basic and outcomes events. The solution which can directly compute the possibility of each aviation accident's outcome by the probabilities of basic events and link events is provided, and the solution builds a quantitative relation between hazards and outcomes of aviation accidents. According to the computational results, a universal methodology to generate aviation accident's preventive measures and mitigate control measures is suggested, it's feasible and property are testified by the example of the tire burst accident.
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