Aiming at the operational concept of penetrating counterair of the U.S. Air Force， in order to meet the requirements of target analysis of anti penetrating counterair operation， a threat assessment method for penetrating counterair operational aircraft is proposed. According to the characteristics of penetrating counterair operation， the aircraft threat assessment indicators is set up， and a threat assessment indicator system for penetrating counterair operational aircraft is built； based on the analytic hierarchy process， the penetrating counterair operational aircraft threat assessment model is established and the threat ranking of penetrating counterair operational aircraft is obtained. The effectiveness and rationality of the proposed threat assessment method are verified by case calculation， which can provide a basis for target analysis and strategy research of anti penetration counterair operation.