Estimation Method of Future Point of Unpowered Glide Targets

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-086x.2025.03.019

Abstract

Abstract:

With the development of ammunition intelligence， the unpowered glide munitions represented by JDAM are widely used in modern warfare. Accurately predicting the future trajectory of such targets is the key problem of modern air defense fire control solution. In this paper， a method of future point prediction for unpowered glide targets based on attitude solution is proposed. Kalman filter is used to estimate the position， velocity and acceleration of the target present point. The target attitude coordinate system is established according to the state information of the target， and the state transition matrix is updated based on the force analysis under the attitude coordinate system. The state transition matrix is used to predict the future position of the target point. The experimental results show that compared with the traditional method， the accuracy of the proposed method is improved by 29%-63%.

Key words: guided bombs, extended Kalman filter, maneuvering target prediction, fire control calculation, attitude coordinate system, future point prediction

摘要：

随着弹药智能化的发展，以JDAM为代表的无动力滑翔类弹药被广泛应用于现代战争中，准确预测该类目标的未来轨迹，是现代防空火控解算的关键问题。提出了一种基于姿态解算的无动力滑翔类目标未来点预测方法。利用卡尔曼滤波估计目标现在点的位置、速度及加速度等信息；结合目标状态信息建立目标姿态坐标系，并基于姿态坐标系下的受力分析更新状态转移矩阵；利用状态转移矩阵的逐步迭代预测目标未来点位置。实验结果表明，相较于传统方法，该方法对目标未来点预测的精度提高了29%~63%。

关键词: 制导炸弹, 扩展卡尔曼滤波, 机动预测, 火控解算, 姿态坐标系, 未来点预测

CLC Number:

E926.4

Shoufeng WANG. Estimation Method of Future Point of Unpowered Glide Targets[J]. Modern Defense Technology, 2025, 53(3): 167-173.

王守峰. 无动力滑翔类目标未来点估计方法[J]. 现代防御技术, 2025, 53(3): 167-173.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1 Target attitude coordinate system diagram

Table 1 Simulated route parameter settings

参数类型	航路1	航路2
目标类型	JDAM	火箭弹
起始高度/km	12	1
起始距离/km	10	9
初始速度/（m·s^-1）	280	840
仿真时间/s	64.4	12.5

Fig. 2 Target route 1 and forecast result chart

Fig. 3 Target route 2 and forecast result chart

Fig. 4 RMSE value in the X- direction for target route 1

Fig. 5 RMSE value in the X- direction for target route 2

Fig. 6 RMSE value in the Y- direction for target route 1

Fig. 7 RMSE value in the Y- direction for target route 2

Fig. 8 RMSE value in the Z- direction for target route 1

Fig. 9 RMSE value in the Z- direction for target route 2

Table 2 The TRMSE of position for target route 1

方法类	X	Y	Z
传统方法	3.904	3.726	3.408
本文方法	2.305	2.168	2.757

Table 3 The TRMSE of position for target route 2

方法类	X	Y	Z
传统方法	2.162	2.184	2.778
本文方法	1.537	0.803	1.573

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