Abstract:

The number of space targets in the LEO region is increasing， and the spacecraft orbital maneuvers are getting stronger and stronger. Combined with the demand for computational efficiency and accuracy of fast collision warning for LEO maneuvering targets， this paper proposes a short-term state error propagation method based on the state transfer tensor under the assumption of J2 model. The method introduces the second-order state transfer tensor to describe the nonlinear characteristics of error propagation from the perspective of spacecraft relative motion， gives the approximate analytical expression of error propagation， and completes the collision probability calculation on this basis. The simulation results show that the method proposed in the paper has good computational efficiency and accuracy for the short-term error propagation and collision probability calculation of LEO targets.

Key words: LEO objects, relative motion, error propagation, state transfer matrix, state transition tensors

摘要：

目前低轨区域空间目标数量不断增加且航天器轨道机动能力越来越强。结合LEO机动目标快速碰撞预警对于计算效率和计算精度的需求，在J2模型假设下，提出了一种基于状态转移张量的短期状态误差传播方法。该方法从航天器相对运动的角度，引入二阶状态转移张量来描述误差传播的非线性特征，给出了误差传播的近似解析表达式，在此基础上完成了碰撞概率计算。仿真结果表明:提出的方法对于LEO目标短期误差传播及碰撞概率计算具有良好的计算效率和计算精度。

关键词: LEO目标, 相对运动, 误差传播, 状态转移矩阵, 状态转移张量